Barrack says Lebanon risks being swallowed by Syria, Israel, Iran if it doesn't act

Lebanon risks being swallowed by regional powers unless it acts to address Hezbollah’s arms and implement reforms, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack has warned.

“You have Israel on one side, you have Iran on the other, and now you have Syria manifesting itself so quickly that if Lebanon doesn’t move, it’s going to be Bilad Al Sham again,” he said, using the historical name for the Syria region, in an interview with UAE’s The National newspaper.

“Syrians say Lebanon is our beach resort. So we need to move. And I know how frustrated the Lebanese people are. It frustrates me,” he added.

Barrack said the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Qatar are ready to help if Lebanon takes the lead.

As for Lebanon’s response to his latest proposal, the envoy said: “I thought it was responsive, very responsive,” while acknowledging that sticking points remain.

“There are issues that we have to arm wrestle with each other over to come to a final conclusion. Remember, we have an agreement (November ceasefire agreement) … it was a great agreement. The problem is, nobody followed it," he added, stressing the urgency for Lebanon to act.

Asked if Hezbollah agreeing to lay down its arms and become a purely political party would prompt President Donald Trump's administration to remove the group from the U.S. foreign terrorist list, as it did with Hayat Tahrir Al Sham in Syria, Barrack declined to elaborate.

“I’m not running from the answer, but I can’t answer it,” he told journalists in New York earlier on Friday.

Asked why President Joseph Aoun has not publicly committed to a disarmament timetable, Barrack said: “He doesn’t want to start a civil war.”

The Lebanese Army is widely viewed as the “best, neutral, reliable mediator” in the current crisis but faces severe funding shortages due to Lebanon’s economic collapse, Barrack said.

He noted that despite the Lebanese Army’s credibility, it operates “on a shoestring budget,” forcing U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon, UNIFIL, to fill the gap with 10,000 troops.

“God bless the United Nations and the UNIFIL troops, but they don’t really have command and control over harsh things,” Barrack noted.

He also acknowledged that any attempt to fully disarm Hezbollah could be volatile and risk sparking a civil war.

He suggested a possible path could involve Hezbollah agreeing to voluntarily disarm its heavy weapons, including rockets and drones, handing them over to monitored depots under a “mechanism” involving the U.S., France, Israel and the Lebanese Army.

Barrack added the Lebanese Army lacks the resources and manpower to take on such a mission.

“We don’t have the soldiers on the ground for the LAF to be able to do that yet, because they don’t have the money. They’re using equipment that’s 60 years old,” he said.

As a result, Hezbollah argues it cannot rely on the Lebanese Army for protection, he added.

“Hezbollah is looking at it saying, ‘We can’t rely on the LAF. We have to rely on ourselves because Israel is bombing us every day, and they’re still occupying our land,’” he said, referring to occupied border areas known as the “five points".

Barrack said addressing these security concerns, while preventing escalation into conflict, would require international support to strengthen Lebanon’s army and a mechanism to manage heavy weapons, with buy-in from all sides.

He said the U.S. has approached its Gulf partners to seek funding for the Lebanese armed forces but has faced resistance.

“The U.S. is going to our valued Gulf partners and saying, ‘We want money to go to the LAF,’” he said. “Why do the Gulf partners not want to do that? Because they’ve given so much money to Lebanon in the past that’s gone to the corrupt leaders. So they’re saying, ‘Yeah, we’re done.’”

He noted that Gulf states are reluctant to invest further without assurances that funds will bypass Lebanon’s entrenched political elite and corruption.

“This is the big dilemma,” Barrack said, adding that without sustained support for the Lebanese Army, it will remain under-resourced, complicating any efforts to stabilize the country and reduce Hezbollah’s hold.

“We need to help bolster the LAF,” Barrack said. “We can do it hand-in-hand with the Gulf countries, hand-in-hand with UNIFIL, as we redefine what their role is on a continued basis.”

In another interview with Saudi Arabia’s English-language newspaper Arab News, Barrack warned that “if Lebanon doesn’t hurry up and get in line, everyone around them will.”

He stressed that any process for the disarmament of Hezbollah must be led by the Lebanese government, with the full agreement of Hezbollah itself.

“That process has to start with the Council of Ministers,” he said. “They have to authorize the mandate. And Hezbollah, the political party, has to agree to that.”

Barrack also indicated that the U.S. had facilitated behind-the-scenes talks between Lebanon and Israel, despite the former’s legal prohibition against direct contact.

“We put together a negotiating team and started to be an intermediary,” he said. “My belief is that’s happening in spades.”

At the heart of any deal will be the question of arms; not small sidearms, which Barrack dismissed as commonplace in Lebanon, but heavy weaponry capable of threatening Israel. Such weapons, he said, are “stored in garages and subterranean areas under houses.”

A disarmament process, he suggested, would require the Lebanese Army, an institution he described as widely respected, to step in, with U.S. and other international backing.

“You need to empower LAF,” he said. “Then, softly, with Hezbollah, they can say, ‘Here’s the process of how you’re going to return arms. We’re not going to do it in a civil war.’”

Still, Barrack expressed a note of cautious optimism.

“I think this government is ready,” he said. “They’re standing up to the issues. We’re not being soft with them. We’re saying, you want our help? Here it is. We’re not going to dictate to you. If you don’t want it, no problem — we’ll go home.”

Barrack made it clear that the time for delaying tactics might be running out.

“It’s a tiny little country with a confessional system that maybe makes sense, maybe doesn’t,” he said. “Now is the time.”