The bombing has quieted in Iran's 12-day conflict with Israel. Now its battered theocracy and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must regroup and rebuild in a changed landscape.

Israeli airstrikes decimated the upper ranks of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker-buster bombs damaged the nuclear program — though how much remains disputed.

The whipsaw chain of events involving Iran, Israel and the United States that culminated in a surprise ceasefire has raised many questions about how the Trump administration will approach the Middle East going forward.

Yet, the answer to the bottom line question — "what's next?" — remains unknowable and unpredictable. That is because President Donald Trump has essentially sidelined the traditional U.S. national security apparatus and confined advice and decision-making to a very small group of top aides operating from the White House.

In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed a shellshocked shadow of himself. He looked diminished and downtrodden by the surprise assault that created a national emergency and caused his public support to plummet.

Now, as Israel faces another unprecedented crisis in a war with Iran, Netanyahu appears rejuvenated. With the U.S. lending its support against a threat he has devoted his life to confronting, Netanyahu is demonstrating a resurgent confidence that could signal a new turning point in his lengthy political career.

Hezbollah has long been considered Iran's first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. But since Israel launched its massive barrage against Iran, triggering the ongoing Israel-Iran war, the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the fray — even after the U.S. entered the conflict Sunday with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

A network of powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq has also remained mostly quiet.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who crushed internal threats repeatedly during more than three decades in power, now faces his greatest challenge yet.

His archenemy, Israel, has secured free rein over Iran's skies and is decimating the country's military leadership and nuclear program with its punishing air campaign. It is also threatening his life: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Khamenei "cannot continue to exist."

Iranian missiles again evaded Israel's sophisticated aerial defense array on Thursday, striking a main hospital in the south as well as residential areas in the country's populous center.

Israel has long relied on its multilayered missile defense system to protect communities around the country from rocket barrages from militants in Gaza or Lebanon. Since the wars in the Middle East erupted in 2023, that list has grown to include fire from rebels in Yemen and Iran.

For years, Israel has targeted Iranian nuclear scientists, hoping to choke progress on Iran's nuclear program by striking at the brains behind it.

Now, with Iran and Israel in an open-ended direct conflict, scientists in Israel have found themselves in the crosshairs after an Iranian missile struck a premier research institute known for its work in life sciences and physics, among other fields.

If the U.S. decides to support Israel more directly in its attack on Iran, one option for Washington would be to provide the "bunker-buster" bombs believed necessary to significantly damage the Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant, built deeply into a mountain.

Such a bomb would have to be dropped from an American aircraft, which could have wide-ranging ramifications, including jeopardizing any chance of Iran engaging in Trump's desired talks on its nuclear program. Israeli officials have also suggested that there are other options for it to attack Fordo in central Iran as it seeks to destroy the country's nuclear capabilities.

Jeffrey Fields USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

Relations between the United States and Iran have been fraught for decades – at least since the U.S. helped overthrow a democracy-minded prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh, in August 1953. The U.S. then supported the long, repressive reign of the Shah of Iran, whose security services brutalized Iranian citizens for decades.

Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.

Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.