The ceasefire that ended Iran's 12-day war with Israel has held for nearly a month without incident, but many Iranians remain uneasy, struggling with uncertainty as fears of another confrontation linger.

By Asher Kaufman, University of Notre Dame

(THE CONVERSATION) A fragile ceasefire was put in place in southern Syria on July 19, 2025, after days of violence between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes that drew in government forces and prompted Israeli strikes on the capital, Damascus, as a warning to pull back from Druze areas. The United States helped broker the latest agreement, fearing a spillover of violence to other parts of Syria.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have resumed their attacks on Red Sea shipping, saying they aim to force Israel to cease fire in Gaza  -- a move that threatens a truce with Washington and rattles maritime trade.

The Iran-backed rebels allege that the two vessels they attacked earlier this week -- the Magic Seas and the Eternity C -- were linked to trade with Israel.

Mireille Rebeiz, Dickinson College

After a 12-day war launched by Israel and joined briefly by the United States, Iran has emerged weakened and vulnerable. And that has massive implications for another country in the region: Lebanon.

President Donald Trump campaigned on keeping the United States out of foreign wars, but it didn't take long to convince him to come to the direct aid of Israel, hitting Iranian nuclear targets with bunker-buster bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers and Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from a submarine.

Beyond the attack's immediate impact on helping bring the 12-day war to a close, experts say Trump's decision to use force against another country also will certainly be reverberating in the Asia-Pacific, Washington's priority theater.

The bombing has quieted in Iran's 12-day conflict with Israel. Now its battered theocracy and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must regroup and rebuild in a changed landscape.

Israeli airstrikes decimated the upper ranks of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker-buster bombs damaged the nuclear program — though how much remains disputed.

The whipsaw chain of events involving Iran, Israel and the United States that culminated in a surprise ceasefire has raised many questions about how the Trump administration will approach the Middle East going forward.

Yet, the answer to the bottom line question — "what's next?" — remains unknowable and unpredictable. That is because President Donald Trump has essentially sidelined the traditional U.S. national security apparatus and confined advice and decision-making to a very small group of top aides operating from the White House.

In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed a shellshocked shadow of himself. He looked diminished and downtrodden by the surprise assault that created a national emergency and caused his public support to plummet.

Now, as Israel faces another unprecedented crisis in a war with Iran, Netanyahu appears rejuvenated. With the U.S. lending its support against a threat he has devoted his life to confronting, Netanyahu is demonstrating a resurgent confidence that could signal a new turning point in his lengthy political career.

Hezbollah has long been considered Iran's first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. But since Israel launched its massive barrage against Iran, triggering the ongoing Israel-Iran war, the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the fray — even after the U.S. entered the conflict Sunday with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

A network of powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq has also remained mostly quiet.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who crushed internal threats repeatedly during more than three decades in power, now faces his greatest challenge yet.

His archenemy, Israel, has secured free rein over Iran's skies and is decimating the country's military leadership and nuclear program with its punishing air campaign. It is also threatening his life: Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Khamenei "cannot continue to exist."