Report: Israel and US see 'window of hope' despite Hezbollah tensions
Despite rising tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, Israel and the U.S. detect a shift in Shiite sentiment against Hezbollah, Israel’s Ynet news portal has reported.
“The rising tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border and between Jerusalem and Beirut do not, according to sources in Washington and Jerusalem, reflect the full picture. Information obtained by Ynet indicates that the current assessments in both Israel and the United States regarding the situation in Lebanon are far more optimistic than what recent media reports suggest,” Ynet said.
According to “authorized intelligence sources,” the region is now at a historic crossroads, with a “potentially positive turning point from both the Israeli and American perspectives,” Ynet added.
“This view is shaped by several developments, but especially by the public reaction in Lebanon—including among Shiites—to an ‘open letter’ issued by Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem,” Ynet said.
In the letter, Hezbollah says it has honored the ceasefire declared nearly a year ago and warns that any move to disarm the group or to begin negotiations with Israel would weaken Lebanon. It further asserts its refusal to surrender its “right to resist” and its independence from government authority in matters of war and peace.
The letter followed a series of Israeli strikes allegedly targeting Hezbollah’s growing military infrastructure in Lebanon and a statement by President Joseph Aoun that Lebanon has no choice but to consider negotiations with Israel.
What caught Israeli and American analysts off guard, however, was the “reaction within Lebanon’s Shiite community.”
“Well-known and respected figures sharply condemned Hezbollah’s aggressive stance, believed to be driven by Iranian pressure. These individuals, part of a growing anti-Hezbollah movement within the Shiite sector, released videos calling on their fellow Shiites, now a majority in Lebanon, to pressure Hezbollah to change course and support a new political framework that would include disarmament,” Ynet said.
Their call has been echoed by prominent voices and opinion leaders from other religious communities in Lebanon, signaling a broader potential shift in the country’s internal discourse.
According to senior analysts, Lebanon’s current administration --led by President Aoun, a former army chief -- now holds more political and military strength than any Lebanese administration in recent decades. This shift is attributed to several key factors.
First, Hezbollah has suffered significant military setbacks in its clashes with the Israeli army. The group has lost key personnel and weapons systems, while Iran—its main backer—is no longer able to provide the same level of financial and logistical support it once did.
Second, the Lebanese public—particularly the Shiite community—is war-weary and deeply wounded. Many now see the new government as a chance to lift the country out of economic collapse. While Hezbollah reportedly continues to receive substantial Iranian funding—some $1 billion over the past year, according to international media—it is not enough to meet its mounting obligations.
“The group must pay monthly stipends to the families of its so-called martyrs, and the war added tens of thousands of new casualties to that list. One of Hezbollah’s largest expenses now is paying rent for Shiite families displaced from southern Lebanon—villages that the group effectively turned into forward operating bases. These refugees, along with the families of dead or wounded fighters, regularly crowd Hezbollah’s financial arm, al-Qard al-Hassan, which has struggled to meet demands after some of its branches and vaults were targeted by Israeli strikes,” Ynet said.
Meanwhile, Israel’s ongoing operations to disrupt Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts are deepening Lebanon’s crisis—militarily, socially and economically—and fueling public unrest.
“A third key factor is financial: international donors who could help rebuild Lebanon—most notably Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates—are waiting for a green light from U.S. President Donald Trump. That approval, sources say, is contingent on Hezbollah’s disarmament,” Ynet added.
Amid Lebanon’s deepening crisis, national elections are set for May 2026, and Hezbollah fears that in addition to losing much of its military capability, it may also suffer a significant political blow. “However, a more pressing deadline looms for the group: Trump’s demand for disarmament by the end of December 2025—just six weeks away. Should Hezbollah continue to reject disarmament, Lebanon’s economic collapse and political instability are expected to worsen, intensifying the hardship faced by the majority of its population still reeling from war,” Ynet said.
Officials in both Washington and Jerusalem believe that Hezbollah, still the dominant military and financial force in Lebanon, must ultimately choose a path: either agree to a negotiated settlement and disarmament via the U.S.-French framework, or face a new confrontation -- one in which “Israel, backed by the United States, would carry out through military escalation what the Lebanese army and President Aoun cannot accomplish alone,” Ynet added.
Israeli officials, however, remain cautiously optimistic that such a confrontation can be avoided, Ynet said, adding that “Hezbollah’s current military buildup does not appear to be aimed at confronting Israel directly.”
“Rather, the organization seems focused on amassing enough power to threaten Lebanon’s government and other sectarian communities with the possibility of civil war,” Ynet suggested.
It also said that “no immediate military escalation is expected, mainly due to the Trump administration’s insistence on exhausting diplomatic channels first” and that “a shift in Israel’s approach could come as early as the start of next year.”
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