Israel and Trump at odds over Iran nuclear strategy
Israel is threatening military action against Iran while U.S. President Donald Trump pursues diplomacy, exposing a growing rift between the long-time allies over how to confront the Islamic republic's advancing nuclear program.
As a fourth round of indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. kicked off in Muscat on Sunday, Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar emphasized that his country would not allow Tehran, under any circumstances, to develop its nuclear program.
"The most dangerous regime must not be allowed to obtain the world's most dangerous weapon," said Saar.
Like Western countries, Israel suspects its arch foe Iran of wanting to acquire nuclear weapons. Tehran denies these allegations, defending its right to civilian nuclear energy.
"If military operations are necessary... so be it," said Israeli President Isaac Herzog in an interview published this week by the German newspaper Die Welt, while also stating that he wanted to give "dialogue a chance".
In 2015, Iran and several major powers signed an agreement regulating Tehran's nuclear development, including uranium enrichment, in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions that had been imposed on the country since the mid-2000s.
- Military Option -
However, in 2018, the United States, during Trump's first term, withdrew from the agreement, rendering the deal largely ineffective.
Since then, Iran has resumed much of its nuclear activities.
The country is now enriching uranium up to 60 percent, well above the 3.67 percent limit set by the agreement, but still below the 90 percent threshold required for making nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Since his return to the White House, Trump has initiated new negotiations, which Israel opposes.
Israeli officials have also expressed irritation at another agreement made behind their back between Washington and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
"Israel insists that the (nuclear) agreement be much more comprehensive (than the one in 2015) and that Iran not be allowed to domestically enrich uranium," geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP.
According to him, Israeli authorities now believe that "Tehran can quickly develop a weapon if it chooses to."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who applauded Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, has emphasized that Israel is prepared to use all means necessary to stop the Islamic republic from developing its nuclear capacity.
"The deal that truly works is the one that eliminates Iran's ability to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons," he said in late April, urging for the complete "dismantling" of the nuclear program.
- 'Awkward position' -
"There are currently many voices in Israel suggesting that there is a window of opportunity to use military force if necessary," said Raz Zimmt, director of Iran studies at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
According to him, the idea of strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure is motivated by two factors.
The first being the perception that Iran has been weakened after Israel targeted its defense systems in October 2024.
Secondly, the fact that Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based militant group, is also diminished after its war with Israel in 2024, and thus "incapable of retaliating" to defend Tehran, its major ally.
Experts interviewed by AFP say that if Israel were to strike Iranian nuclear sites, the United States would likely be expected -- at the very least -- to be ready to defend Israel in the event of Iranian retaliation.
"A strike with the support or even participation of Washington can be much more effective," said Horowitz.
"Trump's positions are putting Israel in an awkward position: he (Netanyahu) doesn't want to be at odds with the new administration, but he is beginning to understand that Trump wants a deal at all costs."
Zimmt says, however, that "it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu would oppose Trump" if the latter signed an agreement with Iran.
Source: Agence France Presse
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