UK Adds Firepower over Syria but Impact Will be 'Marginal'
Britain will bring extra precision firepower to the Syria air campaign but its participation will be no game-changer, according to experts who questioned the effectiveness of coalition air strikes in the war-torn country.
Following the green light from lawmakers Wednesday for strikes on Syria, a total of 16 Royal Air Force warplanes will be available to bomb Islamic State (IS) group targets in Syria.
"It will not make a big operational difference," said Malcolm Chalmers, research director at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think tank.
Julian Lewis, the Conservative chairman of the Commons defense select committee, said: "The difference the UK can make by joining the bombing effort to the challenge of eliminating IS will be highly marginal."
Before the vote, Britain's Akrotiri base in Cyprus had eight Tornado jets and 10 MQ-9 Reaper drones, two of which took part in a one-off mission to kill two British jihadists in Syria in September.
This force was bolstered on Thursday by an additional two Tornado jets and six newer-built Typhoon fighters, doubling its capacity.
Nevertheless, this does not make a large difference to the combined firepower of the anti-IS coalition, according to Justin Bronk, a research analyst in military sciences at RUSI.
"Extending the current British combat airpower contingent committed against Daesh in Iraq to cover Syria too will not make a very significant difference to the coalition," Bronk said, using an Arabic acronym for IS.
"Whilst the combat power of this sustainable long-term RAF commitment is impressive, it is not huge compared to the weight of firepower which the coalition as a whole...can bring to bear against Daesh in both Iraq and Syria."
- Brimstone missiles -
Some impact could be made by Britain's Brimstone missiles, which are designed to hit moving targets with greater accuracy due to their dual-mode laser and radar homing technology, according to Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
The weapons can hit small moving targets such as motorcycles, and carry a small explosive charge that releases only a small amount of debris on impact -- intended to minimize civilian casualties.
"It's a very precise missile," said Ben Barry, the IISS senior fellow for land warfare.
"It won't change the course of war decisively initially, but who can tell what could happen over the long term if it enables a particularly important target to be struck?"
Experts remain uncertain about the effectiveness of the 8,300 air strikes the international coalition has carried out in Iraq and Syria since September 2014.
The bombing supported Kurdish forces in taking back the Iraqi town of Sinjar, and helped the fight against IS in strategic points such as the northern Syrian town of Kobane and Arbil in Iraqi Kurdistan.
According to the British government, the bombing helped take back over 30 percent of IS-controlled territory in Iraq. But experts say IS has also gained a lot of territory in Syria.
The Conservative government of Prime Minister David Cameron argues that plenty of key IS infrastructure targets have yet to be hit. But military analysts warn that air strikes alone will not be enough.
One major challenge is that the jihadists mix in with the local population to avoid being detected. They have also been known to dig tunnels to escape bombings.
"The answer is not dropping more bombs," said Hassan Hassan, a Syria expert at the Chatham House think tank, pointing to the risk of radicalizing residents of areas targeted by warplanes.
What is most needed is stepped-up support for more moderate Syrian opposition groups -- help with overall tactics and strategy rather than with money or weapons, according to Hassan.
Cameron claimed on Wednesday that as many as 70,000 "Syrian opposition fighters who do not belong to extremist groups" could be mobilized to take the fight to IS on the ground -- a figure that has been called into question.
"Neither am I ignoring the risks of military action nor am I pretending that military action is any more than one part of the answer," Cameron told parliament.
"I am absolutely clear that we must pursue a comprehensive strategy that also includes political, diplomatic and humanitarian action."
Source: Agence France Presse
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