Study: Russia's Ukraine tactics could inspire China, Iran
Russia's alleged tactics in the Ukraine conflict including covert military action and social media campaigns could inspire other nations such as China and Iran, a top defense think-tank warned Wednesday.
Most armies around the world are ill-prepared to tackle this new type of "hybrid warfare", the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual Military Balance report.
It said NATO should act with "urgency" to develop responses to such threats, which had the potential to "rapidly destabilize" Western states.
The study said Moscow had waged "limited war for limited objectives" in Ukraine while maintaining a "deniability" which had confused the West's response.
As the United States considers whether to supply arms to Ukraine, it also detailed how Kiev's armed forces had been "hollowed out" by low investment and were largely reliant on Soviet-era equipment.
By contrast, Russia's defense budget is set to rise from 2.1 trillion rubles ($31.6 billion, 27.9 billion euros) in 2013 to 3.29 trillion rubles this year, the IISS said.
The report, released in London, assesses the military capacity of 171 countries around the world.
It also turned the spotlight on the Islamic State group, China and North Korea's plans to develop an inter-continental ballistic missile.
"Insecurity, violence and the use of military force are increasing, the arc of instability is widening and military crises don't seem to end but rather multiply," said IISS's director-general John Chipman at its launch.
As the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France prepare to meet in Minsk for peace talks, Chipman added that it was "not clear that the will is there" for a ceasefire on the ground.
His think-tank's report said that Russia was waging a form of war in Ukraine combining low-level conventional and special operations with campaigns on social media to shape public opinion.
Such tactics represent a "grave threat to NATO's collective security" because they operate "in grey areas that exploit seams in the alliance".
Russia denies supplying troops and weapons to rebels in Ukraine.
But the effect of such tactics could also spread beyond Ukraine, the report said.
"Policymakers may anticipate that some current or potential state or non-state adversaries, possibly including states such as China and Iran, will learn from Russia's recent deployment of hybrid warfare," it said.
"These lessons might not necessarily be applied in conflicts with Western states but their potential to rapidly destabilize the existing order could, if applied in other zones of political and military competition, mean they have global ramifications."
Some of the media tactics employed by IS jihadists in Iraq and Syria, including using social media to recruit fighters, had "thematic similarities" with those used in Ukraine, the study said.
It warned that Western armies, many emerging from a 13-year war in Afghanistan and facing squeezed budgets, were still focused on fighting more conventional conflicts.
Given the threat, they should be looking at how to counter enemy propaganda as well as gathering intelligence and improving the readiness of military forces, the IISS said.
Another IISS fellow, Toby Dodge, predicted that fighting in Syria and Iraq would last for up to a decade.
"This conflict is going to run in Iraq and Syria over the next 5 to 10 years and I suspect then... the region then moves to contain it," he told reporters.
While European defense spending has declined since the 2008 financial crisis, it has increased in Asia.
The development of China's military has ramped up under President Xi Jinping as it faces a string of territorial disputes and seeks to deter U.S. deployments in the region, according to the IISS.
Chinese defense spending now accounts for 38 percent of the total for Asia, up from 28 percent in 2010. Its overall defense budget rose 12.2 percent last year.
"Beijing's military ambition is aimed at providing at least regional power projection and a conventional deterrent capacity to discourage external intervention," the report said.
North Korea, the totalitarian hermit state led by Kim Jong-Un, has meanwhile made "significant advances" in its rocket and non-conventional weapons capabilities.
Source: Agence France Presse
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