Brazil Leans towards Old Guard on Eve of Polls
Despite economic woes and corruption, Brazilians appear ready to entrust incumbent Dilma Rousseff with the task of rebooting the world's seventh biggest economy in Sunday's presidential elections.
Latest polls out Thursday saw Rousseff stretching a double-digit first round lead over her main challenger, environmentalist Marina Silva, and winning a run-off by seven percentage points.
Rousseff, Brazil's first female leader and a former guerrilla jailed and tortured under the 1965-85 military dictatorship, retains the support of millions of voters who have benefited from a decade of extensive welfare support begun under her Workers Party (PT) predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Under Lula, massive welfare programs such as the Bolsa Familia (family allowance) helped lift some 40 million voters out of poverty, swelling a burgeoning middle class who underpinned a consumer boom that has now faded amid economic recession.
In Thursday's final televised debate, watched by some 50 million people, Russeff asked rhetorically "who has the most experience" and "the determination to undertake necessary reform", while her rivals castigated her government's economic record and corruption scandals on its watch.
Even before Rousseff, 66, took office in 2011 another renowned female politician had lost faith in the PT.
Silva, born into a poor family of Amazon rubber tappers, served as Lula's environment minister and alongside Rousseff, his one-time energy minister whom he would promote to chief of staff and then pick as his successor.
Having quit over policy clashes, Silva caused a stir when she stood for the Green Party in 2010 and came in third.
Lula's enduring popularity helped propel Rousseff to victory then and his support this year has pushed his protege back into pole position after Silva did well in the early running by decrying corruption and state intervention in the economy.
Silva only took the Socialist Party ticket in August after the death in an air crash of former running mate Eduardo Campos, entering a contest pitting two high-powered women against each other.
As a black woman who only learned to read at 16, Silva picked up early support, not least among the young, captivated by her mantra of ushering in "new politics".
But recent weeks have seen Rousseff fight back in a country where a party machine is a prerequisite to govern a continent-sized country with an electorate of 142.8 million.
In a country marked by deep social inequality, voters are Sunday called upon to elect not just a president but also 27 state governors, 513 congressmen and 1,069 regional lawmakers as well as a third of the senate.
An upsurge in urban violence in Rio this week will see 22,253 police, double the usual total, on the former capital's streets during polling, which starts at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) with first results expected by midnight.
Corruption scandals such as a vote-buying racket which saw leading PT figures jailed last year, and a new kickback scandal involving state-owned oil giant Petrobras which Rousseff formerly chaired, have sullied party politics in voters' eyes.
And with the PT having spent 12 years in power their reputation has taken the biggest hit.
"All my life I've voted PT -- but I am disappointed by the corruption scandals and I'm going to vote for Marina Silva," customs official Carmen Balcao told AFP.
Analysts say the corruption cases could well hurt Rousseff.
"I do think there is a vulnerability when it comes to Petrobras," Julia Sweig, director for Latin America studies at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.
But Sweig added Rousseff would likely benefit from "a pretty strong consensus that the state should (continue to) spend money on poor people" through welfare aid.
Third-placed social democrat Aecio Neves, the candidate favored by financiers, has been gaining ground on Silva -- one poll put the pair in a technical tie for second place.
Marcos Troyjo, a Brazilian political scientist from Columbia University, says Rousseff's party base will help her cause.
"With the party machine behind her Dilma is coming back. But Dilma is at her maximum potential now -- there is a large groundswell of anti-PT voters out there," says Troyjo, who sees Silva losing steam.
"Recently, we have seen a return to politics as usual as some contradictions drag her down," including flip-flopping on gay marriage early in the campaign, Troyjo told AFP.
He added record low unemployment should benefit Rousseff while "the Lula support factor is considerable."
Brazil's sheer size mitigates against Silva's reformist ambitions, says Patricia Krause, Latin America economist at global credit insurer Coface.
"The market has a more positive view of Marina, but it's difficult to make big changes in Brazil right now."
Source: Agence France Presse
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