How Could the Israel-Hamas Conflict Develop?
Future developments in the Gaza conflict -- attrition warfare, a ground incursion or a ceasefire -- depend on events on the ground, the status of the forces on both sides and internal dynamics, analysts say.
-- What is the current balance of power in the conflict?
Israel has dealt a heavy blow to Hamas by eliminating three of its senior military commanders, with the outcome of its attempt to assassinate the Palestinian movement's military chief Mohammed Deif unclear.
Israel has also destroyed around two-thirds of the 10,000 rockets Hamas was believed to possess, killing some 900 "terrorists" and destroying their network of underground attack tunnels, army spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lerner told AFP.
"Hamas no longer has the same capabilities as before, there is a gap between the reality on the ground and the military and political statements," said Mukhaimer Abu Saada, a professor of political science at Gaza's Al-Azhar University.
The Israeli blockade could making restocking a near impossible mission for Hamas. Analysts, however, warn that the Islamist movement may yet have some surprises in store.
The war has cost Israel the lives of 64 soldiers, the army's heaviest losses since the 2006 Lebanon war. Four civilians have also been killed, one of them a child.
After 41 days, the campaign had cost Israel $2.5 billion, according to defense officials quoted in Haaretz daily.
-- Has Israel changed its strategy of targeted assassinations?
According to Nathan Thrall, a senior analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think-tank, the answer is no.
"They would have liked to kill senior figures of Hamas throughout the war," he said. "The real question is: why did it why did take them so long."
Uzi Dayan, former Israeli national security advisor, thinks that while it's a blow for morale, targeted killings will not dramatically affect Hamas.
"I don't think it has an enormous impact on their operational capability," he said, warning that if rocket fire continued, Israel would attack more vigorously.
-- Will Israel be facing a war of attrition?
Israel will not hear of a war of attrition.
"A war of attrition implies that this would last for months, and I don't think that that's very likely, neither of the parties can afford to let that happen, it's financially too costly and it is politically difficult," said Thrall.
But even if Hamas cannot shoot rockets forever, "they can do it long enough to make (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) very uncomfortable," he said.
Hamas has "nothing to lose," Gaza analyst Mostafa al-Saouaf said.
"Its population is dying because of the war and cannot survive the blockade. Silence of the international community to mass killings in Gaza works in Israel's favor," he said.
-- What are the chances of an all-out war, including a ground incursion?
"The resumption of an all-out war is the least likely," Thrall said. Netanyahu is determined "to prevent this war from doing to him what the Lebanon wars did to his predecessors."
But the return of Israeli troops to the Gaza Strip is a "real possibility," Dayan said. "Netanyahu won't tolerate for a long time a continuation of the fighting."
"Israel's dilemma is whether to continue and to apply more and more pressure, but more of the same pressure, or to launch a ground attack," he said, adding that a decision was likely to be taken within days.
-- Is there a chance the sides will return to negotiate?
Out of the question, Hamas says. But experts insist it's a real possibility. Palestinians such as "Khaled al-Batsh of the Islamic Jihad are not closing the door on negotiations," said Abu Saada.
In addition, Palestinian demands may have been revised during the two days of talks in Doha between Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas and Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal over Thursday and Friday.
However, Thrall warned, while the two sides could be willing to "strike an agreement," it would not necessarily be a deal that the other side would accept.
Source: Agence France Presse
| Copyright © 2012 Naharnet.com. All Rights Reserved. | https://mobile.naharnet.com/stories/en/144477 |